It’s almost the unofficial end of summer, which means cooler weather, pumpkin spice and sweaters are on the horizon. And with that, one of the season’s greatest gift has arrived: the 2023 fall foliage prediction map.
Since 2013, the tourism site for the Smoky Mountain region has released an interactive tool to help predict when peak fall will happen county by county across the contiguous United States.
The tool is not perfect — and doesn’t claim to be. While it’s based on weather science, extreme weather is making foliage harder to predict accurately. This year is no exception, and towns that rely on leaf-peeping tourism are bracing for an uncertain season. North America has had a chaotic year between wildfires and violent storms. Thanks to heavy rains waterlogging tree roots, leaves may change earlier than usual.
But David Angotti, a statistical expert and the founder of SmokyMountains.com, and his team stand behind their map. “After publishing our predictive fall foliage map for nearly a decade, we are confident in our data sources, process and algorithm,” he said in a statement.
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They’ve also introduced a form that allows users to fill out foliage reports in real time. The map team will then add user intel to its data to refine their estimates.
Here’s what the map is predicting this year.
Southeast
Maryland should see peak colors by mid-October with an ultimate peak arriving around Oct. 23. The northern half of Virginia should be past peak by then.
In North Carolina, leaves will begin to change by early to mid-October and explode between Oct. 23 and 30.
For the best Tennessee fall foliage, plot your visit for mid-October. At lower elevation, colors should last through mid-November.
Midwest
In Michigan and Minnesota, minimal-to-patchy foliage will begin up north in September before peaking in October.
Illinois and Indiana should be full of color from mid-to-late October, with Ohio on a slightly earlier schedule.
The West
Northern Washington state and its beautiful larches will start to see color by mid-September, while the rest of the state changes more by the end of the month. Expect peak between Oct. 9 and 13, and the end of peak around late October.
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Oregon leaves should start to minimally peak around Oct. 9, but the real show should start in mid-to-late October through early November.
East Coast
Fall foliage in Vermont should peak around early October, but visitors should be able to catch rich colors in the southern part of the state through the end of the month. In New York, minimal peak season in the northern part of the state should start around late-September and run through the first week of October. Leaves should be past peak by mid-October.
Further north in Maine, near-peak is expected around Oct. 2, with ultimate peak hitting between Oct. 9 through 13. A similar timeline is expected in Rhode Island.
In New Hampshire, one of the country’s premier destinations for peeping, the best colors are expected between Oct. 2 and 6 in the northern half of the state, and Oct. 9 and 13 in the southern portion.
correction
An earlier version of this article listed Tennessee as being in the Midwest. It is in the Southeast. The article has been corrected.
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