published on July 23, 2024 in Quick Update

Fantasy football 2023: The perfect draft

As you prepare for your fantasy football draft, there are a few summer headlines to keep in mind:

The New York Jets signed former Vikings running back Dalvin Cook to a one-year deal, giving Aaron Rodgers another weapon and second-year pro Breece Hall competition for carries.
The New England Patriots added veteran depth to their running back group, bringing in Ezekiel Elliott on a one-year deal. He will join Rhamondre Stevenson, Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong in a crowded backfield.
Vikings rookie receiver Jordan Addison missed some time this summer after entering the concussion protocol, although he returned to practice Aug. 23. Seahawks rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (discussed below) is having wrist surgery, although he could be ready for the start of the season.
Among other injury situations to watch: Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow strained a calf early in the preseason, but seems on track to play in Week 1. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews missed several practices in late August, but also seems on track to play in the season opener.
Running back Jonathan Taylor spent the summer in a messy contract dispute with the Indianapolis Colts and is also dealing with an ankle injury from last season. When the Colts were unable to trade him, they planned to put him on the physically unable to perform list, costing him at least four games.

But if those changes impact your draft strategy at the margins, they aren’t enough to shape your overall approach. For that, you will want to refer to the below grid, which lays out the Perfect Draft.

A reminder about our definition of “perfect” for this annual exercise. Perfect means pushing aside conventional wisdom and getting the optimal value at each draft spot. To do so, we keep the overall outline of average draft position but make modifications to the positional rankings based on injury concerns, strength of schedule and opportunity. In other words, all the rosters in the draft below should outperform an average team in any given week, with most performing at a playoff-caliber level.

The methodology starts with each player’s consensus draft ranking from the experts surveyed at Fantasy Pros and ends with a projected season-long fantasy point total that is adjusted for injury potential, strength of schedule and draft scarcity. Adjusting performance for various factors and then comparing that to a baseline allows us to see where positional scarcity affords fantasy owners the opportunity to go after players from the top tier of their position rather than settling for a selection from a lower grouping. A more in-depth explanation of our methodology can be found here.

I will caution you that some players come off the board in this “perfect draft” at significantly different slots than their average draft position would suggest. This is a feature, not a bug.

Remember: This is the perfect draft based on our 2023 projections, so some players will have more or less projected value than the public perceives. Use this to your advantage.

The picture of perfection in the draft grids below was crafted for a 12-team, point-per-reception league using the following starting lineup: one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, one flex player (RB/WR/TE), one defense, a kicker and seven bench players. It was created based on what was known as of Aug. 23.

For an easier-to-digest alternative, we also have the best picks for the first three rounds, organized for each slot. And you can find everything you need in our cheat sheet .

Now for some takeaways about this picture of perfection.

Prioritize balance early

Emphasize your starting roster spots during the first seven rounds to ensure a balanced team. Grabbing wide receivers like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase early can offer a sizable advantage to anyone with top overall picks. Teams drafting later in the first round, even with an optimal selection strategy based on production and positional scarcity, appear to be at a slight disadvantage, probably because of the top-heavy nature at the wide receiver and running back position. Prioritizing upside over players with lower ceilings, such as those beyond their prime or unlikely to find themselves starting, can offset this challenge, although the waiver-wire and early-season adaptations are always key.

Have faith in Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley

You will notice the Perfect Draft has Austin Ekeler rated one spot higher than Christian McCaffrey. This reflects some injury risk and opportunity uncertainty for McCaffrey. Ekeler’s touchdown-scoring prowess and multifaceted contributions bolster his case as the top running back option. With 18 combined touchdowns last season — after scoring 20 the year before — he defied regression narratives. Ekeler’s exceptional versatility — he led all running backs in receptions and targets — amplifies his fantasy output. And McCaffrey’s transition to the 49ers has him in a crowded offense, potentially affecting his touches. While McCaffrey’s potential is undeniable, Ekeler’s well-rounded impact and situation solidify him as the top fantasy running back option for the 2023 season.

Saquon Barkley is another running back who appears to be more valuable than his average draft position suggests, and his 2022 bounce-back season in an improved Giants offense speaks volumes. Ranked fifth in fantasy points among running backs last season, he regained his explosive form both as a rusher and receiver. He scored eight touchdowns on 35 red-zone carries (19 in goal-to-go situations), highlighting his red-zone impact, and nine of his rushes went for 20 yards or more, illustrating his explosive potential.

Josh Allen is the top quarterback

As with running backs, the top two quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, are flipped in the Perfect Draft compared to conventional wisdom. Allen’s consistent fantasy prowess and dual-threat ability make him a worthy option at the top spot. Finishing second behind Mahomes last season after securing the top fantasy spot in 2020 and 2021, Allen’s ceiling remains sky-high. With multiple multi-touchdown games and 4,000+ passing yards for three consecutive years, he showcases elite passing and scoring potential. Allen’s invaluable rushing contributions, including 700+ yards and consistent trips to the end zone — he scored at least six rushing touchdowns in five straight seasons — set him apart. Mahomes, meanwhile, faces changes in his receiving corps, while Allen’s rapport with his offensive weapons should remain intact. Given Allen’s established track record, dual-threat excellence and upside, he’s poised to surpass Mahomes as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback.

Don’t wait on running backs

Running backs seem to be the most highly sought-after position early in drafts. In many drafts, five or more running backs are being selected in the first round, and five or more additional backs are going off the board in the second round. While the position itself is in flux in NFL offenses, fantasy managers continue to place a premium on securing elite running backs early due to their scarcity and potential for high point production.

Your fantasy football running back strategy has gone from Zero to Hero

You can expect McCaffrey, Ekeler, Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard and Derrick Henry to have their names called by the middle of the second round, with other high-output running backs like Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris close behind. However, you will notice the Perfect Draft ranks these backs in a less typical order after adjusting for injury risk and strength of schedule. Don’t be afraid to go against the conventional wisdom of average draft position or generic rankings. Your goal is to win your league, not to have the highest-rated draft according to your site host.

And don’t think that super secret running back selection you have circled on your draft sheet is going under the radar: as information has proliferated, finding sleepers at running back has become harder, meaning you’ll have to take your super secret favorite earlier than you might want. Mock drafts are seeing a huge run at running back around Round 11, with as many as seven running backs often selected in that round alone.

There is plenty of depth at wide receiver

Wide receivers are also in high demand early in the draft, but there is plenty of depth at the position. Jefferson will probably go No. 1 overall, and Chase and Cooper Kupp are legit first-round picks. Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, CeeDee Lamb and Garrett Wilson are in the next tier of receivers, to be considered in Round 2.

Other wide receivers worth an early look include second-year stars Chris Olave and Christian Watson and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Olave averaged 2.4 yards per route run as a rookie last season, the seventh-most among any wide receiver. Watson produced the 11th most yards per route run in 2022 (2.3) as a rookie. And Pro Football Focus forecast that Smith-Njigba could be the NFL’s “next great power slot receiver,” although his wrist injury is an obvious concern.

Late-round quarterbacks offer upside

As is typical, quarterbacks will probably be sprinkled throughout the early rounds. Someone will grab Mahomes in Round 2, with Allen soon to follow. Jalen Hurts will probably go in Round 3, while Round 4 will probably wave goodbye to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. Still, you don’t want to reach for a quarterback, even as the big names exit. Instead, wait until the later rounds for value in somebody like Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa or Geno Smith.

Fields’s electrifying 2022 rushing performance foreshadows his potential as a dynamic fantasy asset. With 1,143 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns, he showcased elite mobility and efficiency. While his passing numbers lagged due to challenges on Chicago’s offensive line and spotty wide receiver support, Fields is primed for growth. The Bears’ additions, including wideout D.J. Moore, hint at a quantum leap.

Tagovailoa is looking to build off a breakout 2022. He completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,548 yards and 25 touchdowns, leading the league in touchdown rate (6.3 percent), yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (105.5). He might have finished higher in the MVP voting, too, if not for missing four games because of concussions. Smith, the comeback player of the year in 2022, was briefly considered an MVP candidate as well. He returns to a Seattle roster with an assortment of dangerous receiving weapons, including DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Smith-Njigba.

If you miss out on Travis Kelce, punt on tight ends until late

Kelce is the consensus No. 1 tight end. He’s coming off a 1,338-yard, 12-touchdown campaign and doesn’t appear to be slowing down, even at 33. After that, it gets murky. Sure, Mark Andrews and T.J Hockenson appear to be solid values, but it doesn’t appear those two will separate themselves much from the pack, based on 2023 projections and taking into account injury risk and strength of schedule. Instead, look for a diamond in the rough later in the draft.

Kyle Pitts finished 2022 earning 15 percent of Atlanta’s targets, averaging 1.7 yards per route run and six yards per target. His versatility, lining up wide and in the slot, along with his five red-zone and five end zone targets, forecast upside. For comparison, the average NFL tight end sees two or three red-zone targets and one in the end zone. Dalton Schultz saw 14 targets when split wide with Dallas last season and was heavily involved inside the 20-yard line with 16 red-zone and nine end zone opportunities. Indications are he could get similar opportunities with the Houston Texans this season. Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 2.7 yards per route run was exceptional, doubly so for a rookie. The Titans’ tight end’s efficiency at 9.8 yards per target was also a 2022 highlight.

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